#54 Oregon St. Beavers Preview

  #54 – Oregon St. Beavers 5-6 SU; 3-7 ATS   

 Fargo’s Take  After making an appearance in the postseason three straight years, expectations were high in 2005 and after starting the season 4-2, the Beavers were looking good to make it to another bowl. However, Oregon St. dropped four of its last five games including a shellacking in the Civil War to Oregon and remained home for the holidays. All of the pieces are in place for the Beavers to improve on offense but the defense remains an issue. Oregon St. finished 105th in scoring defense and the young secondary was exploited all season as it ended 115th in passing defense. Nine starters are back on offense including senior quarterback Matt Moore who should be more efficient in his second year in the Beavers system. The schedule is not in Oregon St.’s favor but it has one major asset and that is kicker Alexis Serna, the 2005 winner of the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s best kicker.

 Returning Starters on Offense – 9  Turnovers were the story for the Beavers offense in 2005 as their 36 giveaways were second most in the country. Moore accounted for 23 turnovers (19 interceptions and 4 fumbles) and he will need to turn that around in order for the Beavers to improve. Moore loses his best target in Biletnikoff winner Mike Hass but he does have some returning targets that can excel led by slot receiver Anthony Wheat-Brown. Also back is tight end Joe Newton, who had 56 catches in 2004 but missed all of last season with an ankle injury. The running game should improve this season as Yvenson Bernard is back following a spectacular sophomore campaign. The entire offensive line returns and should be one of the most improved in the entire country and is actually listed as one of the top ten units by some.

 Returning Starters on Defense – 7  This is the area Oregon St. needs to improve the most. The Beavers finished 17th in the country against the run last year but most teams went to a passing attack against them since they couldn’t stop anyone. The entire front seven was solid but five key players, including two all-conference linebackers, need to be replaced. A bigger pass rush needs to be established to take some of the pressure off the secondary. A lot of young players were thrown into the fire last year in the defensive backfield and that year of experience can go a long way. All four starters are back in the secondary, including three sophomores, so while the unit should be better, it still has a long way to go. The defense allowed 33.2 ppg last season despite giving up 20 points or less four times and that average is the most since 1998.

 Schedule  The Beavers have a doable non-conference schedule this season with games against Eastern Washington, Idaho and Hawaii. The other out of conference game is at Boise St., a team looking for revenge after losing in Corvallis in heavy rains. The Pac Ten schedule is extremely difficult despite having five of the nine games at home. The four road games are all winnable but that doesn’t mean the Beavers can win any of them as all can be considered swing games. Oregon St. has to host USC, California, Arizona St. and Oregon, the top four teams in the conference coming into the season. The good news is that they are all at Reser Stadium but the bad news is that all four contests are likely losses. The season finale at Hawaii could decide the postseason fate of the Beavers.

 You can bet on…  Head coach Mike Riley took over the Beavers in 2001 following an 11-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl romp over Notre Dame. Since then, he has led Oregon St. to three minor bowl games and after last season’s late collapse, rumblings have started about his job security. A winning record is likely necessary to keep his job secure. The Beavers are 19-8 as a home favorite since 1999 but are coming off their first losing record in that spot last year. They have dropped five games straight up at home over the last two years after losing only four in the five previous years combined. The home slate is not kind this season with only three of their seven games being likely winners. Since they play 13 games and seven wins are needed for a bowl bid, a few upsets need to occur along the way for the Beavers to get back in the postseason picture.

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