Bill Milton's College Bowl Preview - December 26th

We have been doing this professionally since 2002 and for years before that as well, and we cannot remember a game we have liked as little as we "like" the Heart of Dallas Bowl. La Tech almost bear Marshall (we had LT in that one) and owns the common opponent edge as they drilled WKU & Illinois only beat them by eight, but Illinois off a win against a Northwestern team that is very similar in style to LT...just with better players. Can't lay the points, can't take the points, and would have the smallest lean to the Over since bowls involving C-USA teams have been high scoring this year, but taking an Illinois Over is dicey...so there is just nothing to play here. Check us out on Twitter to help us make our choice in our pre kickoff entry confidence poll. If you made us choose right now we would take the underdog....

As many of you reading this know, we faded Rutgers in their season finale, and did so in a big way, using Maryland as our 7* Game of the Year. What looked like one of the easiest wins in our history (Terps led 35-10) ended up being one of the most painful losses, and quite honestly stepping up to the plate on another Rutgers game is something we do not relish, so we tread lightly here. However, seeing as how the Knights have had only one good half of defensive football since mid October while UNC has been poor defensively all season, we lean with the Over in that one - in the Quick Lane Bowl.

That leaves the St Petersburg Bowl, and we like Central Florida in this....almost enough to make it star rated. We like the fact that UCF has a very good rush defense and NCSU has to run to be effective. We also of course like that UCF will have the crowd edge with this one in their home state and that NCSU's best win has come against a 6-6 UNC team and that the Wolfpack are 1-5 SU with five bad losses against bowl teams this year. However, UCF 0-2 vs "BCS" teams this season, and we cannot ignore that NC State coach Doeren is 5-2 SU in his career with extra time to prepare his team. Had only one of those last two negatives been in effect this would probably have been a 2* on the Knights, but with everything accounted for to us the best course of action is to make UCF a strong opinion play.

Now, if in the course of the day word leaks that UCF coach O'Leary is retiring after this game - and the way I hear it there is a 40% chance of that happening - then I would make UCF star rated, as the players will be even more motivated for this one.

Thanks, and Have a Great Day!